Bitcoin (BTC) held steady above $107,500 ahead of a major options expiry on Friday.
38% of Deribit’s $40B in BTC options open interest will expire, with a “max pain” price of $102,000.
Bitcoin’s implied volatility has dropped from 50% in April to 38%, signaling increased market confidence.
Bitcoin traded within a narrow range during US hours on Thursday, holding steady above the $107,000 mark as traders positioned themselves ahead of a significant quarterly options expiry scheduled for Friday.
While the broader crypto market saw slight declines, Bitcoin’s stability belied the underlying tension of a massive volume of derivatives contracts nearing their conclusion.
The top cryptocurrency was last changing hands around $107,500, down a negligible 0.2% over the past 24 hours.
In contrast, the CoinDesk 20—an index tracking the top 20 digital assets excluding stablecoins, exchange coins, and some memecoins—lost 0.9% during the same period, indicating some weakness in the altcoin market.
Market participants are keenly focused on Friday’s event, which is set to be one of the largest options expiries of the year.
“This Friday marks one of the largest option expiries of the year on Deribit,” Jean-David Péquignot, chief commercial officer at the popular derivatives exchange Deribit, told CoinDesk.
He noted that the total open interest for Bitcoin options currently stands at a staggering $40 billion, and a substantial 38% of these contracts are set to expire on Friday.
A key metric that traders are watching is the “max pain” price, which is the strike price at which the largest number of options (both puts and calls) would expire worthless, theoretically causing the maximum financial loss for option holders.
“Max pain price for Friday is at $102,000, with a put/call ratio of 0.73,” Péquignot said. This suggests a potential gravitational pull towards the $102,000 level as the expiry approaches.
Volatility eases, but caution remains
Despite the looming expiry, market volatility has shown signs of calming down.
Bitcoin’s implied volatility, as measured by the Deribit DVOL index, has dropped to 38% from the 50% levels seen during a wild April.
According to Péquignot, this could signal that “the market is increasingly confident in the cryptocurrency’s macro-hedge role.”
However, an analysis of put-call skews reveals no clear directional bias among traders in the short term, indicating a state of market neutrality.
Péquignot emphasized that the $105,000 level for Bitcoin is pivotal from a technical standpoint, suggesting that “technicals suggest caution if support fails.”
He also noted that “low open interest in perps [perpetual futures] and fairly depressed Bitcoin implied volatility and skew are indicative of limited expectations for sharp price movements going into Friday’s expiry.”
Crypto stocks show divergent performance
In the equity markets, several crypto-related stocks managed to post gains on Thursday.
Core Scientific (CORZ) was a standout performer, surging more than 33% following a report from The Wall Street Journal suggesting that the Bitcoin miner may soon be acquired by AI Hyperscaler CoreWeave (CRWV).
Other notable gainers included Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), Riot Platforms (RIOT), and Hut 8 (HUT), which were all higher by 5%-7%. In contrast, Strategy (MSTR) was down nearly 1%.
While stablecoins like USDT and USDC have been dominating US headlines recently, thanks to the GENIUS Act and Circle’s (CRCL) blockbuster IPO, a quieter but equally significant strategic adoption of these assets is reshaping cross-border finance in Asia.
Behind the scenes, stablecoins are already playing an important role in the region’s financial plumbing.
Asian banks are increasingly viewing stablecoins not just as a speculative asset class, but as a defensive tool to guard against potential deposit flight and to protect against lost transaction revenue.
Amy Zhang, Head of Asia at Fireblocks, explained in a recent interview with CoinDesk that major banks across Korea, Japan, and Hong Kong are proactively exploring the creation of their own local-currency stablecoins to mitigate these emerging threats.
“If I’m not one of the banks banking Circle or banking Tether, am I going to lose deposits?” Zhang told CoinDesk, articulating the core concern driving this exploration.
“That’s a huge risk for banks.”
This strategic consideration highlights a deeper, more utility-focused integration of digital assets that is unfolding in the East, often away from the glare of Western market speculation.
