CFTC to Review Prediction Markets in Public Roundtable

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission will hold a public roundtable in the coming weeks to review its regulatory approach to prediction markets, a move that could affect platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

The roundtable will follow the agency’s request for information on sports-related event contracts and is intended to gather input from market participants, legal experts, and industry stakeholders. 

Discussions will examine the legality of event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act, consumer protection concerns, and potential regulatory changes, according to a statement on Wednesday.

Acting Chairman Caroline D. Pham criticized the commission’s previous stance, calling it a “sinkhole of legal uncertainty” that has hindered innovation, per the statement.

Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated designated contract market, has faced regulatory obstacles, including the agency’s decision to block its proposal for election-related contracts in 2023. Polymarket, which operates on Ethereum, was fined $1.4 million in 2022 for offering unregistered swaps.

Common-sense approach

Under Biden, the CFTC cracked down on event contracts and unregistered platforms, Pham said, with former Chair Rostin Behnam expanding oversight of crypto derivatives and DeFi.

In response, Pham said the CFTC must take a forward-looking approach while maintaining oversight to protect consumers from fraud and abusive practices.

“Unfortunately, the undue delay and anti-innovation policies of the past several years have severely restricted the CFTC’s ability to pivot to common-sense regulation of prediction markets,” she said.

Crystal ball

During the 2024 U.S. presidential election cycle, Polymarket saw significant trading volume, with traders using it to track the likelihood of Donald Trump securing the Republican nomination and subsequent presidential victory on November 5.

Polymarket became a key barometer of sentiment throughout the Trump campaign, with traders responding rapidly to shifts in polling data, legal proceedings, and key endorsements.

The company’s CEO, Shayne Coplan, was later targeted in a law enforcement raid on November 14, with authorities seizing his phone and electronics.

A spokesperson at the time characterized the move to Decrypt as “political retribution,” claiming Coplan was being singled out after Polymarket users correctly predicted Trump’s win.

With Trump now in office, Pham sees prediction markets as a “new frontier” for harnessing market sentiment to gauge probabilities and enhance information accuracy in the digital age.

The roundtable will take place at the CFTC’s headquarters in Washington, D.C., with further details to be announced. Public comments and participation requests are due by February 21, the regulator said.