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VanEck said energy led Q3 2026 commodity gains as conflicts and refining constraints lifted refined-product prices; CMCITR and BCOM were up about 32% through September.
Energy was the main driver of broad commodity strength in the third quarter of 2026, according to VanEck, which said conflicts and refining constraints pushed refined-product prices higher while two broad commodity benchmarks finished September up roughly 32% for the year.
Evidence and context
In its Oct. 14, 2026 commentary, VanEck said energy led Q3 commodity gains as conflicts and refining constraints lifted refined-product prices. The firm said the UBS Constant Maturity Commodity Index (CMCITR) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) each ended September up roughly 32% year to date. The source material does not provide the exact quarterly return, only the year-to-date figure through September.
Additional context in the supplied background points to a sharp rise in Brent front-month futures during the quarter: prices began Q3 at $72 a barrel on July 1, moved above $100 on July 23 and peaked at $109 on Sept. 15. The background also says prices averaged about $104 in the final two weeks of the quarter. These figures describe the quarter under review and not the current market quote.
The same background attributes the rally primarily to renewed Middle East military strikes, Strait of Hormuz disruptions, attacks on energy infrastructure, recovering Chinese crude imports and slower U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases in September. It also says U.S. refinery utilization averaged 95% and that gasoline crack spreads more than doubled from a year earlier, while distillate and jet-fuel spreads nearly tripled. For the week ending Sept. 25, distillate inventories were 13% below their five-year average.
Separate enrichment data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, dated Oct. 5, 2026, said crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter. The Kansas City Fed, in a Sept. 15-30 survey cited in the enrichment, said average reported drilling-profitability thresholds were $3.59 per million Btu for natural gas and $64 per barrel for oil. Those are profitability thresholds, not observed market prices.
The supplied materials include extensive fund and index risk disclosures from VanEck, including warnings that commodity markets can be volatile and that index performance is not illustrative of fund performance. The disclosures also note that the information is not personalized investment advice and that past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Timing remains limited to the source dates provided. No next catalyst date was supplied in the material, and the Oct. 15 Reuters item in the enrichment notes that oil prices fell as investors weighed supply outlook and Middle East tensions, indicating some giveback after the quarter-end rally.
